The Aseanist comes to a depressing conclusion that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations needs Myanmar/Burma more than the despotic nation needs Asean.

He pointed out that ASEAN needs Myanmar more than Myanmar needs ASEAN.
I have to admit that he’s largely right. In his eyes, Myanmar, if somehow expelled from ASEAN for its reluctance to change, could go either to India or to China. I think there’s more of a worry about the latter than the former. Yangon and New Delhi, of course, have history, and Myanmar is particularly sensitive about its colonial history. A link to New Delhi would seem like a reconstituted Raj, although there are enough Burmese Indians to make this happen. China is the greater worry. Even though, like most Southeast Asians, most Burmese are rather suspicious of Chinese intentions, China has long developed an economic foothold in Myanmar, particularly in the north. And I’d wager many of the ruling generals have developed quite cozy relationships with Chinese business interests.