Via Marginal Revolution:

Hundreds of millions of Chinese have been lifted out of abject poverty in the last several decades but trust Lester Brown to see the downside (Brown, of course, is sadly joined by Paul Krugman and neo-cons itching for another cold-war).  In his latest book, Brown argues that the Chinese will soon be eating little children.  Well, not exactly, but he does think that Chinese eating will cause little children to die.  Writing in the Washington Post, Bill McKibben summarizes the Brown argument (which he endorses):

    The Chinese, in particular, are constantly converting farmland to factory sites (even as they learn to eat more meat), and they have plenty of American cash stored up to pay for any shortfall. But if they do so, the first casualties will be the world’s really poor nations, already reeling from increases in the price of fuel.

Of course this is an old story for Lester Brown who in 1973 said:

    The soaring demand for food, spurred by continued population growth and rising affluence, has begun to outrun the productive capacity of the world’s farmers and fishermen.  The result has been declining food reserves, skyrocketing food prices, food rationing in three of the world’s most populous countries, intense international competition for exportable food supplies, and export controls on major foodstuffs by the world’s principal food supplier.

Isn’t it amazing how rising affluence leads directly to mass starvation?  Some people just can’t be happy. 

As AsiaPundit noted yesterday "on rural China, one point that is often missed is that agrarian lifestyles will only produce rural-sized incomes….  The longer-term solution (for China’s rural poverty) is allowing the urbanization and retraining of rural populations. "

It can be further noted that China’s rural peoples, like most globally, are heavily dependent on agricultural prices for their incomes. This creates a situation where, a touch bizarrely, rural poverty and malnutrition are often worsened by falling food prices. There is not too little food, there are too many farmers.

An economist AsiaPundit had been speaking with this week during his day job, admittedly one of the outliers on the growth prospects for Chinese consumer spending,  was expecting a slowing in consumer retail spending. In 2005 it was driven by higher rural incomes that were based on strong agriculture prices. Food prices are now falling.

Lower food prices mean that those in rural areas will need to sell more of their crops in order to make more money. In spite of Brown’s argument, rural people’s needs extend well beyond food. Cash is needed for healthcare, education, shelter, retirement and other necessities. As a wise man once said, perhaps Lincoln, "man does not live on bread alone." It’s not like China is some sort of communist utopia.

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