Foreign observers may be puzzled by the political crisis that’s engulfed the Arroyo presidency merely a year after being inaugurated into a 6 year-term.

The issue can be summarized thus: after President Joseph Estrada left office after an impeachment trial collapsed in the face of a tactic by his allies in the Philippine senate to block the opening of an envelope of evidence on procedural grounds, Cardinal Jaime Sin, who had helped provoke People Power against Ferdinand Marcos, Vice-President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo took over the presidency. Her serving our Estrada’s four remaining years in office were marred by legal questions. In 2004, she ran for a full six year term, and won. The problem was allegations of fraud (normal in the Philippines), which a Congressional canvass (official counting of returns) did nothing to dispel. The proclamation of Arroyo as president-elect mere days before her inauguration thus left her mandate under a cloud. It didn’t help there were credible accusations of massive disenfranchisement.

However, the most serious crisis confronting her has come from the surfacing of tape recordings of a Commissioner of the Philippine elections authority, a controversial appointment in the first place (the man, nicknamed "Garci," is Commissioner Virgilio Garcellano, notorious since the Marcos era for being an expert in fixing voting results in favor of the highest bidder). The tapes indicate the President of the Philippines talked to Garcellano on several occasions, as did many other politicians. However, in light of earlier doubts about the conduct of the election, the question of the president’s mandate thus resurfaced.

Hearing the tape would be revealed by the opposition in a press conference, the President’s press secretary preempted it, distributing copies of the tape to the press, with another recording he claimed was authentic. Furthermore, an aide of the President’s brother-in-law came forward and said he was the one the President talked to. The public was skeptical of the explanation. It didn’t help that the government then claimed that being wiretapped conversations, the tapes were beyond the purview of Manila’s rambunctious media. Having brought forward the tape, government was seen as having no right to prevent its distribution. A rebellion, of sorts, among media people took place primarily by means of the Internet; cellphone-obsessed Filipinos avidly downloaded ringtones of what seemed to be the President saying, "Hello, Garci.. Will I win by one million votes?"

The President at first kept silent, then after mounting public pressure, reversed herself after three weeks to apologize to the nation for "a lapse in judgment," which resulted in more questions being raised. Chief among them, if it was her, talking to a person she admitted was with the elections authority, then wasn’t her press secretary’s and other allies’s comments a cover up? The House of Representatives began hearings, complementing hearings being conducted by the Senate (the Senate’s been looking into accusations the President’s family took money from illegal gambling).

The President further tried to mollify critics by sending members of her family into exile; this effort was overtaken by the widow of her leading opponent in the elections calling for her resignation in a very emotional speech. Pressure has mounted on other leading Filipinos, such as Cory Aquino, to speak up (she’s counseled prudence and prayer), while Philippine Catholic bishops, politically influential, have lost Cardinal Sin as a spokesman and so now have to come up with a consensus.

Civil Society, that is, the middle class, business class, entrepreneurial and big business segments of the population, have thus far shown a disinclination to take the protest to the streets. Street protests at present are dominated by the Communists and the followers of Joseph Estrada. The President says that having said sorry, she should be allowed to concentrate on reform. The recent decision of the Supreme Court, however, to suspend the implementation of a centerpiece of the reform program, now adds pressure to the President. Meanwhile, the tapes were finally played in the House, and other tapes will be played in the coming days. Calls for the President to keep within the constitutional order, are mounting, chief among them, calls for her to resign. The central issue is: having at least shown improper conduct during the elections, and at the most having been shown to have presided over an effort to cheat, should the president remain in office? If not, can the constitutional order hold? That is the question.

A further dissection of the issues can be found in my blog. There’s also a  pseudo-Socialist roundup in HotManila. Useful reading at the PCIJ blog (they’re a group of highly-respected independent journalists), television reporter Jove Francisco, legal issues, including the transcripts of tapes at lawyer JJ Disin’s blog as well as other legal issues in Punzi, while a combined legal effort to provide materials is in Gloriagate (which is what media has decided to call the controversy); Sassy Lawyer has other views; the expat view in Torn And Frayed, Journalist Tony Abaya also has columns on line; the controversy has been a coming of age, of sorts, for the Philippine blogosphere.