The Development Bank Research Bulletin compares the 2006 economic forecasts on India and China by the three major investment banks that cover both countries.
Deutsche Bank always has no preference!
Deutsche Bank forecasts that China’s GDP will grow at 9% in year 2006, while India will grow at 6.9%. This creates a 2.1% growth gap. Both numbers are almost the same as the consensus in the industry. This is not the first time; I have to mention that last year DB did the same thing. DB always agrees with the consensus view!
Citigroup loves Indian foods!
Citigroup however thinks the gap should be smaller. Citi predicts that China will grow at 8.7%, while India at 8.1%, which produces a merely 0.6% gap compared to DB’s 2.1%. I have to mention that Citi’s 8.1% forecast of India GDP growth in year 2006 is the highest among all major forecasters. Their forecast of 7.5% for last year was also the highest. Citi does love Indian foods!
Morgan Stanley does not like Asian foods!
Interestingly, Morgan Stanly is very pessimistic about both India and China. Morgan Stanley thinks China will grow at only 7.8% while India at 6.6%. Among all major forecasters who have released numbers for China and India, Morgan Stanley’s forecast is the lowest. Last year MS also was the most pessimistic about the two countries, and missed the target by wide margin. They must have some private information and hard evidence backing their persistent opinion. I will try to find it out and share with readers in the next weeks.
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