12 March, 2006

india vs china: the banker’s view

The Development Bank Research Bulletin compares the 2006 economic forecasts on India and China by the three major investment banks that cover both countries.

Deutsche Bank always has no preference!

Deutsche Bank forecasts that China’s GDP will grow at 9% in year 2006, while India will grow at 6.9%. This creates a 2.1% growth gap. Both numbers are almost the same as the consensus in the industry. This is not the first time; I have to mention that last year DB did the same thing. DB always agrees with the consensus view!

Citigroup loves Indian foods!

SinoindiaCitigroup however thinks the gap should be smaller. Citi predicts that China will grow at 8.7%, while India at 8.1%, which produces a merely 0.6% gap compared to DB’s 2.1%. I have to mention that Citi’s 8.1% forecast of India GDP growth in year 2006 is the highest among all major forecasters. Their forecast of 7.5% for last year was also the highest. Citi does love Indian foods!

Morgan Stanley does not like Asian foods!

Interestingly, Morgan Stanly is very pessimistic about both India and China. Morgan Stanley thinks China will grow at only 7.8% while India at 6.6%. Among all major forecasters who have released numbers for China and India, Morgan Stanley’s forecast is the lowest. Last year MS also was the most pessimistic about the two countries, and missed the target by wide margin. They must have some private information and hard evidence backing their persistent opinion. I will try to find it out and share with readers in the next weeks.

Technorati Tags: , , , , , ,

by @ 3:25 pm. Filed under China, India, Asia, East Asia, Economy, Northeast Asia, South Asia

One Response to “india vs china: the banker’s view”

  1. ChinaLawBlog Says:

    We just posted on how Morgan Stanley plans to triple its investment this year in Chinese real estate, by increasing it to $3 million. Seems even Morgan Stanley is not all that pessimistic. Our post is here: http://www.chinalawblog.com/chinalawblog/2006/03/china_is_boomin_1.html

Leave a Reply

[powered by WordPress.]

Free Hao Wu
Keep on Blogging!

Support Bloggers' Rights!
Support Bloggers' Rights!

Search Blog


March 2006
« Feb   Apr »
  1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25
27 28 29 30 31  




Hong Kong

The Koreas


India & South Asia

Global & Regional

Meta Data

Listed on BlogShares Ecosystem Details


Design By: Apothegm Designs


AsiaPundit Friends



Mr. China - by Tim Clissold:

How to lose $400 million in the world's biggest market.

Imelda - Power, Myth, Illusion:
A documentary on the former Philippine first lady that is damning, sympathetic and incredibly funny.

Yat Kha - Re Covers:
Siberian throat-singing punk band searches for its roots's - Bomb the Twist:
Three Japanese women play 1950's-inspired punk.

Gigantor Box Set Volume 1:
The original giant Japanese robot

Mao: The Unknown Story - by Jung Chang and Jon Halliday:
A controversial and damning biography of the Helmsman.

Recent Posts

recent comments

  • Falen: Michael, Are you trolling from one website to the next? How dare you to call Blues "anti-democratic"! I think...
  • Michael Turton: Both those commentors above are incorrect. Taiwan must have weapons to guarantee its own security,...
  • mahathir_fan: The source of the anger is probably because the Stephen YOung the unofficial "ambassador" to Taipei...
  • mahathir_fan: I want to applaud legislator Li Ao for his outspokenness on the arms procurement issue and for debating...
  • mahathir_fan: "A widening Chinese anti-corruption inquiry has targeted Beijing’s party leaders, in a sign that...


Your Ad Here






More from China

31 queries. 0.415 seconds