18 October, 2005

pre-olympic war

Michael Turton has a long piece on how a strike on Taiwan by China could take place ahead of the 2008 Beijing Games. Politically, this still strikes me as a flight of fancy, though still a good read.

AsiaPundit sees a strong probability that the EU would sit on the sidelines of any conflict. However, an assault on Taiwan would probably give the upper hand to the Continent’s protectionist forces. Snapping up Chinese goods would be unlikely.

In the last few years a consensus that the China threat might be greatest prior to the 2008 Olympics has emerged among many of us armchair analysts in the Blogosphere. Brian Dunn at the Dignified Rant has a an argument for a pre-Olympic invasion here, and a Taiwan invasion scenario to go with it. Commentator Wendell Minnick has published a fascinating account of an invasion as well. Here’s a bit of fantasy for your enjoyment…

Olympic Tank

Diplomatic Offensive

One important goal for China is to keep foreign intervention down to a minimum. There is no fear that Europe will actually do anything, though there will be expressions of solidarity and public protests, after which everyone will promptly go home and snap up Chinese goods, just as they made no material responses to the illegal US invasion of Iraq that might have required sacrifice on their part. The main diplomatic goal will be to keep the US, Japan, Canada, Australia, and other non-European powers who might have an interest in a free Taiwan from actually intervening. For the US and Japan, a speedy military victory is the most important lever for doing this. For the other nations, the invasion will come at a time when Chinese diplomacy has been putting on a charm offensive, spending money, promising markets, and engaging in pro-active diplomacy.

Expect a rebuttal from Mei Zhong Tai and possibly Sun Bin.

by @ 10:43 pm. Filed under Uncategorized

2 Responses to “pre-olympic war”

  1. sunbin Says:

    Hehe, no rebuttal from me.

    If paranoid can help to prevent awful thing from happening, I am all for it.

    Sadly, it is not entirely impossible that such “fantasy” may become reality — but now that there is the ASL (not age/sex/location, “anti-secession law”) in place, there would be less excuse to act if the ASL is not triggered.

    To come back to my “favorite” topic of arms deal, none of the weapons would be available for battle before the Olympic.

  2. Austin Arensberg Says:

    Something just tells me this is impossible. It would be such a freaking disaster, America would boycott the games, other countries would have to follow, it would ruin everything, why not just invade right after the games, when everyone is basking in Chinese afterglow?

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