To steal one of the Flea’s lines, now is the time at AsiaPundit when we dance:

AsiaPundit endorses

No carbombs or trishaws are permitted near the Great Hall of the People while the NPC is in session.

Via the Opposite End of China, the Economist Intelligence Unit looks at political risk in China. And, in spite of the recent stories of rising protests and increasing ‘mass incidents,’ the EIU says the risk of a coming collapse is low to moderate under four different scenarios.:

Mishandling of protests in Hong Kong destabilises the Chinese leadership (Low Risk)

The Chinese government accepted the resignation of Hong Kong’s chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, in March 2005. Mr Tung’s unsuccessful attempts to force through unpopular national security legislation in 2003 had prompted demonstrations attended by several hundred thousand. The appointment of a new chief executive, Donald Tsang, previously a leading civil servant, eased tensions, and pro-government parties did well in September 2004 elections for the Legislative Council (Legco). However, Mr Tsang’s plans for electoral reform were voted down in December 2005 by pro-democracy parties, who wished to see a faster move towards universal suffrage. The Chinese government has ruled out early moves towards full democracy, and there are fears that clashes between China and Hong Kong politicians over democracy in the territory could have repercussions for political stability in China as China’s leadership struggles to reassert its authority. (image )

Local protests broaden into a wider movement (Moderate Risk)

Local protests will continue to be sparked by a number of issues including lay-offs, failure to pay workers, environmental pollution, corruption and illegal seizures of land. The local government’s failure to properly compensate peasants for seized land was, for example, the cause of recent protests in Shanwei, in Guangdong province, in which several demonstrators were shot dead by police. To date the government has faced down such protests by addressing some of the complaints raised and arresting most of the leaders, but this tactic may not be so successful in the future. The size and number of protests appears to be growing, and the spread of mobile phones has made organisation of demonstrations easier. (image here)

The continuing political transition results in a struggle for power or policy paralysis (Low Risk)

Major shifts in the balance of power are unlikely, and would only occur in the context of a specific controversy (for example, the mishandling of a major health crisis or a collapse in growth could prompt a realignment of power). While most factions within the CCP seem to support the current policy stance, businesses should be aware that the emphasis of policy could change if such a shift occurred. (image via here)

Further disease outbreaks occur, creating public anger and leadership disunity (Moderate Risk)



The growing risk posed by bird flu has been recognised as one of the key threats to China’s strong economic growth rates. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has noted that bird flu appears to be widespread among the country’s poultry population, and outbreaks have occurred in numerous provinces in 2004-05, both among wild birds and among birds raised domestically and commercially. If these outbreaks spread they could devastate the country’s poultry and egg industries, which are among the largest in the world. … This category of risk is also increased by the partisan nature of the press, which can be relied upon to suppress facts deemed unhelpful to the party leadership. Companies should consider establishing contingency plans to cope with a potential health crisis that could render a large proportion of employees ill or disrupt logistics systems. (image via here)

Technorati Tags: asia, china, coruption, east asia, economy, northeast asia

AsiaPundit has killed every house plant that he has ever owned and the desiccated husk of a cactus adorns the desk at his office. Ergo, even though a plant with jellyfish characteristics is inherently creepy, he welcomes this Singaporean invention.

There are fish that glow in polluted water, fluorescent pigs (and rabbit?)… now students at Singapore Polytechnic have created a plant that can communicate with people by glowing when it needs water.

The students have genetically modified a plant using a green fluorescent marker gene from jellyfish, so that it "lights up" when it is stressed as a result of dehydration.

The light can be seen using an optical sensor developed in collaboration with students at Nanyang Technological University.

The development of such plants could help farmers to develop more efficient irrigation of crops.

Technorati Tags: asia, east asia, singapore, southeast asia

Curzon at Coming Anarchy is running a series of maps illustrating the gap countries, those are not within the globalized core. Not surprisingly, most of Asia is part of the globalized core while the Middle East and Africa are dominate the gap countries.

Curiously, by one measure, the highly globalized Singapore and Malaysia lie among the gap countries. Both states still retain anti-sodomy laws, although Malaysia is far more likely to enforce them.

In a 2000 speech to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Robert D. Kaplan said that in evaluating a developing nation’s government, we should focus not on elections but freedoms. Hasty elections in impoverished nations often results in anti-democratic totalitarians taking power, whether it be Germany in the 1930s or Algeria in the 1990s. He listed China as one example of an authoritarian state that is liberalizing in a good way. “It may not be a democracy, but it’s got a predictable tax system, gay and unmarried couples can live together, and so on.” He’s right—China repealed its sodomy laws in the early 1990s.

Tolerance of homosexuality is a side effect of modernization. England repealed anti-homosexual laws in 1967; France in 1982; Germany in 1994; and in the United States, 46 out of 50 states repealed anti-homosexual conduct laws and 36 repealed sodomy laws before the remaining were invalidated by the 2003 U.S. Supreme Court decision Lawrence v. Texas.

What countries still have laws outlawing homosexual conduct? It turns out those countries are almost the same thing as Barnett’s gap.

Curiously, the map on war risk insurance premiums also puts Southeast Asia amid the gap (though this is almost entirely due to piracy risk around Indonesian waters).

For more details see Curzon’s prelude.

Technorati Tags: asia, east asia, malaysia, northeast asia, singapore, southeast asia

The Development Bank Research Bulletin compares the 2006 economic forecasts on India and China by the three major investment banks that cover both countries.

Deutsche Bank always has no preference!

Deutsche Bank forecasts that China’s GDP will grow at 9% in year 2006, while India will grow at 6.9%. This creates a 2.1% growth gap. Both numbers are almost the same as the consensus in the industry. This is not the first time; I have to mention that last year DB did the same thing. DB always agrees with the consensus view!

Citigroup loves Indian foods!

Citigroup however thinks the gap should be smaller. Citi predicts that China will grow at 8.7%, while India at 8.1%, which produces a merely 0.6% gap compared to DB’s 2.1%. I have to mention that Citi’s 8.1% forecast of India GDP growth in year 2006 is the highest among all major forecasters. Their forecast of 7.5% for last year was also the highest. Citi does love Indian foods!

Morgan Stanley does not like Asian foods!

Interestingly, Morgan Stanly is very pessimistic about both India and China. Morgan Stanley thinks China will grow at only 7.8% while India at 6.6%. Among all major forecasters who have released numbers for China and India, Morgan Stanley’s forecast is the lowest. Last year MS also was the most pessimistic about the two countries, and missed the target by wide margin. They must have some private information and hard evidence backing their persistent opinion. I will try to find it out and share with readers in the next weeks.

Technorati Tags: asia, china, east asia, economy, india, northeast asia, south asia

In spite of complaints of redirection at Peking Duck and Boing Boing, Google has not started to redirect Mainland Chinese users to its censored service. Further, AsiaPundit has not noticed any redirection on the Great Firewall side.:

Both Google.com and the can be reached from various locations in Beijing. The above image shows search results, conducted from a Beijing IP address on the censored and uncensored versions.

Technorati Tags: asia, censorship, china, east asia, , northeast asia

Via the Acorn, a look at the way the Subcontinent’s nationalist sentiments play out in real time.:

Officially it was to save daylight. But the standardisation of time is just another way in which the countries of the subcontinent seek to assert their distinct national identities. Start with India, which in a style befitting the character of its polity, centralises its reference meridien by splitting the differences, ending up five and a half-hours ahead of UTC. That makes it inconvenient for many people, not least the makers and users of traditional world-time clocks and watches: Karachi and Dhaka are marked out as they are conveniently a whole number of hours ahead of UTC. That’s changing now with the proliferation of palmtop computers and mobile phones that can put up with Indian idiosyncracies much better.

Given its position almost bisecting India’s east-west expanse, it was natural for Sri Lanka and India to adopt the same standard time. But in 1986, Sri Lanka decided to move the clock forward one hour ahead and then, on second thoughts, back half-an-hour to, well, save daylight. But the Tamil Tigers cried foul, and refused to tweak their watches. The politics of standard time kicked in, as the difference no doubt helped set their own ‘nation’ apart. The Sri Lankan government finally gave in and has decided to set the clock back again, to five and half-hours ahead of UTC. Astrologers, airlines and Microsoft Windows users are among those who need to make necessary adjustments.

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But it is Nepal that wins the prize for asserting a distinct national identity. It is five hours and forty-five minutes ahead of UTC, or 15 minutes ahead of Indian Standard Time.

Technorati Tags: asia, india, nepal, sri lanka, south asia

Judging from the prison treatment being received by two of Indonesia’s biggest celebrity inmates, smuggling pot is a much more serious crime than assassinating a Supreme Court judge.

Indcoup notes that imprisonment hasn’t prevented Tommy Suharto from living the high life.:

Money goes a long way in Indonesia - even if you’ve ordered the murder of a Supreme Court Judge.

Tommy Suharto’s original prison sentence for this indefensible crime was 15 years (why wasn’t it life?), but through some unseen magical forces it has now been cut down to just seven years.

He’s even had his cell in Batu prison spruced up a bit: cable TV, private fishponds and badminton court, as well as special quarters to receive his many girlfriends.

Not that Tommy’s often there to make use of these facilities however.

An astonishing report published yesterday reveals that this arsehole spent 13 days in Jakarta over the last one month:

In the records showed to Detik.com, Tommy obtained permission to go to Jakarta between February 8-13 and February 17-22. Earlier Tommy had also been given permission to leave between January 25-30. In total, Tommy has been able to enjoy freedom for 13 days in a period of just one month. …

But what’s really incredible is news that he’s been staying at his luxury villa in the outskirts of western Jakarta, rather than in the VIP suite at Gatot Subroto hospital!!!

Meanwhile celebrity Australian prisoner Shapelle Corby is seemingly not just stuck in prison - she’s now become a zoo attraction.:

My name is Eddie Hutauruk and I have been running tours in Bali for over 8 years. Schapelle Corby Tours is our latest venture, and is fully respectful of Schapelle and her situation.

For further information or suggestions, email me at:

Shapelle Corby is a convicted Australian drug runner, and my tours allow people to see Schapelle in her cage at Kerobokan Prison in Bali. Tours can be arranged for most days of the week and pick-up is possible from most Bali hotels.

Friskodude adds:

Some Balinese guy (at least I think he is Balinese, but he might be Javanese) has been running tours of Bali for many years, and he’s just started a "prison tour" of the island, where you can meet-and-greet with some of Bali’s most famous expats now serving time in Kerobokan for those ridiculous charges. Pot? Twenty years. Heroin? The Bali Nine will ALL be killed or incarcerated for the rest of their lives for a foolish mistake.
Indonesia, the world’s largest Islamic country, whips women in the town square. What else do you expect when religious fundamentalists get to take out their sense of justice on Western culprits.

Technorati Tags: asia, coruption, east asia, indonesia, shapelle corby, suharto, southeast asia

Jeremy at Danwei reviews two very different China-focused cover stories from Time and Newsweek and notes, the revolution will not be blogged.

While Western commentators, including yours truly, love to get excited about censorship and freedom of expression in China, the future happiness of a fifth of the world’s population is likely to depend on a much more basic right: the definition and protection of private property, and especially the when it comes to usage and ownership of land in rural areas.

In which light it is worth comparing recent cover stories of the Asian editions of Time and Newsweek.

The Newsweek cover story about bloggers, by Sarah Schafer, is not bad: Blogger Nation: A proliferation of voices is slowly dismantling the status quo in China.

The cover is reproduced above; note the cover lines: Beijing vs. bloggers.

It’s a shame that whoever wrote and designed that cover decided to go for such sensationalistism.

When you consider that Massage Milk, the star blogger of the piece, continues to says that the recent shutdown of his blog was a joke directed against Western media, you realize that it’s not exactly Beijing vs. bloggers here.

It seems that very, very few people are blogging for revolution or radical change in China.



The real revolution?

Time’s China zeitgeist cover tackles a different issue: the problems of the rural poor. The story, by Hannah Beech, is titled Seeds of fury.

The basic premise is stated in the last line:

    "The entire village is doomed anyway. We have no money, no job, no land. There’s nothing left to be scared of." If angry farmers truly lose their sense of fear, it may ultimately be Beijing that is running scared.

Technorati Tags: asia, censorship, china, coruption, east asia, economy, northeast asia