28 July, 2005

reactions to the yuan shift

The yuan revaluation has sent shock waves through world financial markets and will have wider effects as time progresses. However, some effects are already being seen, and speculation is widespread. 

Survived SARS is the best chronicle I have found of yuan news. The author also has a lot of insight, including criticism of the move in general:

China has moved from a single-currency peg which was largely credible, even though we knew there was extensive political argument surrounding the exchange rate regime.  Now China has a multiple-currency peg, which is less credible, and proposes that several incremental currency moves will be less politicized in an environment with high speculation, precisely in an economy where the "adverse effects on some sectors of the community are large and very visible."

Monday’s WSJ had a lot of information,and Sun Bin has archived the main points, including caution to American diplomats from pushing for too much too fast. 

Michael Turton is blogging that Taiwanese investors may be looking elsewhere as China prepares even further exchange rate hikes, even up to 10 or 15%.  At the same time, a diverting investment in some sectors may be of interest to China.  Attempts to cool its economy have largely been ineffective, and growth has hovered around 9%.  Reuters reports that Chinese economists are now shifting their focus to safely cooling the roaring economy.

Now that China has America off its back for the time being, it can focus on domestic problems like inequality and spreading some of this new-found wealth.  At the same time, the world remains tuned to the decisions of the People’s Bank and may resume pressure if revaluation does not continue speedily enough.

by @ 1:39 am. Filed under China, Taiwan, East Asia, Economy

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